{
 "meta": {
  "model": "KNTQ_Model_v1.2",
  "asOf": "2026-11-07",
  "startPriceTime": "Our entry: the November 9, 2026 low on Hyperliquid KNTQ/USDC",
  "authors": [
   "Dhru Patel",
   "Cameron Coleman"
  ],
  "note": "Scenarios, not forecasts.",
  "entry": {
   "price": 0.35,
   "date": "2026-11-09",
   "label": "Nov 9, 2026 low on Hyperliquid KNTQ/USDC"
  }
 },
 "months": [
  "Nov 2026",
  "Dec 2026",
  "Jan 2027",
  "Feb 2027",
  "Mar 2027",
  "Apr 2027",
  "May 2027",
  "Jun 2027",
  "Jul 2027",
  "Aug 2027",
  "Sep 2027",
  "Oct 2027",
  "Nov 2027",
  "Dec 2027"
 ],
 "periodShare": [
  0.766666666666667,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1
 ],
 "elysiumLiveShare": [
  0.733333333333333,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1,
  1
 ],
 "price": {
  "start": 0.35,
  "dailyVol": 0.088225073015547,
  "beta": 1.3711547042535,
  "adv30": 4812568.33374209,
  "adv12m": 1781685.93186611,
  "floor": 0.01
 },
 "supply": {
  "circulating": 320523645.77,
  "assistanceFund": 4520085.01,
  "skntqShare": 0.205,
  "tranche": 12916666.666666666,
  "vaults": {
   "foundation": {
    "balance": 100000000,
    "pace": 0
   },
   "growth": {
    "balance": 259999687.8,
    "pace": 3547160.82434402
   },
   "liquidity": {
    "balance": 9476666.43,
    "pace": 933191.630964529
   }
  },
  "vestingMonths": 24,
  "maxSupply": 1000000000.0
 },
 "buybacks": {
  "khypeStake": 10477835.30543,
  "khypeApy": 0.0196416244444444,
  "apyMult": 1,
  "hypePrice": 77.4069677244258,
  "perfFee": 0.1,
  "feeToKntq": 0.7,
  "validators": 12993.662037037,
  "launch": 543.072685185185,
  "markets": 0,
  "inKindKntq": 121591.9934334
 },
 "elysium": {
  "keptShare": 0.8,
  "burnShare": 0.5,
  "builders": 0.25,
  "treasury": 0.25,
  "comps": [
   {
    "chain": "Base",
    "perMonth": 2106198.41666667,
    "basis": "First 12 months, measured net"
   },
   {
    "chain": "Robinhood Chain",
    "perMonth": 2047002,
    "basis": "Median month × 12"
   },
   {
    "chain": "Blast",
    "perMonth": 456249.633333333,
    "basis": "First 12 months"
   },
   {
    "chain": "Arbitrum One",
    "perMonth": 244958.133333333,
    "basis": "Mature year"
   },
   {
    "chain": "Unichain",
    "perMonth": 110004.5,
    "basis": "First 12 months"
   },
   {
    "chain": "OP Mainnet",
    "perMonth": 27198.5666666667,
    "basis": "Mature year"
   },
   {
    "chain": "Mint",
    "perMonth": 23753.7666666667,
    "basis": "First 12 months"
   },
   {
    "chain": "Ink",
    "perMonth": 8346.33333333333,
    "basis": "First 12 months"
   },
   {
    "chain": "Katana",
    "perMonth": 5897.8,
    "basis": "First 12 months"
   }
  ],
  "excluded": "Starknet and zkSync Era: first year before EIP-4844, kept fees not measurable.",
  "robinhood4mAnnualised": 4555870.21233333,
  "target": 750000,
  "partnerMedians": 265830,
  "targetNote": "About $750K a month of buybacks: Blast-level Elysium fees plus partner buying. The partner medians in Figure 5 sum to about $266K a month."
 },
 "valuation": {
  "multiple": 54.5514701307158,
  "multipleLow": 37.9332744810742,
  "multipleHigh": 71.1696657803574,
  "peers": "Lido 37.9x and ether.fi 71.2x (market cap ÷ holder revenue, trailing 12 months); the model uses their median, 54.6x"
 },
 "buyers": {
  "windows": {
   "Dec 2025–Oct 2026": [
    -999.144369613864,
    78768.7691609646,
    227685.483595787,
    401307.01505553
   ],
   "Jan–Oct 2026": [
    2630676.55894593,
    3368452.0398735,
    4005337.68802351,
    4682475.44729093
   ],
   "Feb–Oct 2026": [
    -701019.780653111,
    -381899.521913998,
    -207982.56283648,
    -76782.5733826034
   ],
   "Mar–Oct 2026": [
    16237.3630104271,
    458325.650704132,
    967398.982012752,
    1501615.11979301
   ],
   "Apr–Oct 2026": [
    3125603.12097759,
    4710374.1505535,
    5763612.46152296,
    6726784.28269059
   ],
   "May–Oct 2026": [
    6347886.12664444,
    7503245.3522587,
    9068705.50222305,
    11243225.9554649
   ]
  },
  "sellThroughGrid": [
   0.25,
   0.5,
   0.75,
   1.0
  ],
  "note": "Buyer's margin D: the constant net dollars a month that reproduce KNTQ's HYPE-adjusted move over the window, fitted per sell-through (Oct 2026 claim counted), at 30-day volume."
 },
 "hype": {
  "monthlyLogReturns": [
   -0.22672437977849477,
   0.19795414166509426,
   0.008479055194319041,
   0.15430763486310212,
   0.08397305593245623,
   0.5960014977644291,
   -0.10322428386400195,
   -0.21262579851729094,
   0.47142411917182464,
   0.078093157782241,
   -0.03440576869101984
  ],
  "returnsWindow": "Nov 2025 – Oct 2026 month-end closes (CoinGecko)"
 },
 "cases": {
  "bear": {
   "label": "Bear",
   "sub": "Comps median",
   "elysium": 110004.5,
   "buyerGrowth": -0.12,
   "partners": 0
  },
  "base": {
   "label": "Base",
   "sub": "Comps 75th percentile",
   "elysium": 456249.633333333,
   "buyerGrowth": 0.04,
   "partners": 0
  },
  "target": {
   "label": "Our target",
   "sub": "$750K a month with partners",
   "elysium": 456249.633333333,
   "partners": 293750.366666667,
   "buyerGrowth": 0.04
  },
  "bull": {
   "label": "Bull",
   "sub": "Robinhood Chain level",
   "elysium": 2047002,
   "buyerGrowth": 0.23,
   "partners": 0
  }
 },
 "workbookChecks": {
  "flowBaseDec27": 0.433588314108638,
  "flowBullDec27": 0.813451314040269,
  "flowBearDec27": 0.14845082073337,
  "circDec27": 560493897.07415,
  "mc": {
   "p10": 0.0221816995392684,
   "p50": 0.304704480117353,
   "p90": 4.96302879971791,
   "pAbove": 0.4124
  }
 },
 "defaults": {
  "sellThrough": 0.5,
  "window": "Jan–Oct 2026",
  "hypeTarget": 1,
  "vaultMode": "year_one_pace",
  "volumeBasis": "30d",
  "case": "base"
 },
 "monteCarlo": {
  "paths": 10000,
  "seed": 20261107,
  "stLow": 0.25,
  "stHigh": 1.0,
  "windows": [
   "Dec 2025–Oct 2026",
   "Jan–Oct 2026",
   "Apr–Oct 2026"
  ],
  "noiseSd": 0.6,
  "hypeDrift": false,
  "note": "Flow lens. Each path draws sell-through, a buyer's-margin window, one comparable chain's Elysium level and a HYPE path resampled from monthly returns (demeaned). Monthly noise is calibrated so the default run reproduces the workbook's static run (10th percentile $0.022, about 41% of paths above the start price). On this page every path starts at our $0.35 entry, the November 9 low."
 }
}